Top 10 Economic Metrics for Comparing Biden and Trump
1. GDP Growth
- Trump Year 3 (2019): The U.S. economy saw consistent growth with a 2.3% increase in GDP. Pre-COVID, Trump’s policies—particularly tax cuts and deregulation—were credited with stimulating economic expansion.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): The GDP is recovering post-COVID but at a slower rate compared to Trump’s third year. Growth was around 2.1% amid inflation concerns and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes.
- Verdict: Trump performed better, as his year avoided inflation spikes and had steady growth without the high levels of economic uncertainty.
2. Inflation
- Trump Year 3 (2019): Inflation was stable and low, consistently below 2%.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): Inflation reached 40-year highs in 2022 before easing slightly in 2023. Although it has come down, it still remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
- Verdict: Trump performed better with low inflation during his tenure.
3. Unemployment Rate
- Trump Year 3 (2019): Unemployment was at a 50-year low of 3.5%. The tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks were credited with boosting business confidence and hiring.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): Unemployment is relatively low at 3.8%, although there are concerns about labor force participation and the number of people working part-time for economic reasons.
- Verdict: Trump performed better as his policies had led to historically low unemployment without inflation concerns.
4. Labor Force Participation
- Trump Year 3 (2019): The labor force participation rate was 63.2%, showing signs of improvement after a decade of decline.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): Participation has not fully rebounded post-pandemic and remains around 62.8%.
- Verdict: Trump performed better in driving up labor force engagement.
5. Wage Growth
- Trump Year 3 (2019): Real wages grew at a steady pace, with significant gains for lower-income workers.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): While nominal wages have risen, inflation has eroded much of those gains, leading to stagnation in real wage growth.
- Verdict: Trump performed better, as inflation didn’t undercut wage gains.
6. Stock Market Performance
- Trump Year 3 (2019): The stock market experienced a robust bull run, with the S&P 500 gaining around 28.9%.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): The market is volatile with concerns over rising interest rates, inflation, and a potential recession. S&P growth was around 7% YTD, below Trump’s third year.
- Verdict: Trump performed better, with stronger investor confidence and returns.
7. Federal Debt and Deficit
- Trump Year 3 (2019): The deficit rose to $984 billion due to the tax cuts and increased military spending, but overall debt-to-GDP was stable around 79%.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): The national debt crossed $33 trillion, with higher deficits exacerbated by post-COVID spending, Ukraine aid, and domestic programs. Debt-to-GDP ratio is over 120%.
- Verdict: Trump performed better in managing debt relative to GDP, though both faced challenges.
8. Energy Independence
- Trump Year 3 (2019): The U.S. became a net exporter of energy for the first time in decades, driven by deregulation and support for fossil fuel industries.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): Biden’s administration has emphasized green energy, leading to concerns over energy prices and domestic oil production. Energy independence has decreased.
- Verdict: Trump performed better by bolstering energy independence through traditional energy sources.
9. Business Confidence and Investment
- Trump Year 3 (2019): Business confidence was high, driven by corporate tax cuts and deregulation, which also boosted capital investment.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): Business confidence is weaker, with concerns over higher taxes, inflation, and regulatory uncertainty, especially around environmental policy.
- Verdict: Trump performed better due to his pro-business policies.
10. Trade Deficits
- Trump Year 3 (2019): Despite his trade war with China, the overall trade deficit grew slightly. However, Trump’s tariffs were meant to protect American jobs, especially in manufacturing.
- Biden Year 3 (2023): The trade deficit has widened further, though part of this is due to supply chain disruptions and post-COVID recovery dynamics.
- Verdict: Neither performed exceptionally well, but Trump’s protectionist stance aimed at boosting domestic industry, while Biden’s policies haven’t stemmed the growing deficit.
Kamala Harris’s Economic Plans (if any)
As Vice President, Kamala Harris has focused largely on areas like healthcare, voting rights, and social justice, but there have been few specifics about her independent economic policies. However, as part of the Biden administration, Harris generally supports:
- Furthering Green Energy Initiatives: Harris backs investment in renewable energy as a key plank of the administration’s economic approach. She supports policies designed to move the U.S. away from fossil fuels, although these have met with criticism from conservatives over potential job losses in the energy sector.
- Expanded Childcare and Social Programs: Harris has been a strong advocate for programs aimed at improving childcare access and affordability, which she argues will allow more parents, particularly women, to participate in the workforce.
- Taxation: Harris supports Biden’s tax plan, which seeks to increase taxes on corporations and wealthier Americans. Critics argue this could hurt business investment and job creation.
In summary, Harris lacks a clearly articulated economic platform beyond her role in the Biden administration’s policies, which center on climate change and equity.
Trump’s Economic Plan for 2024
Donald Trump, seeking to return to the presidency, has outlined several key elements for his economic plan should he win the election in 2024:
- Tax Cuts 2.0: Trump has signaled his desire for another round of tax cuts, particularly aimed at middle-income Americans and businesses to drive investment, growth, and job creation.
- Deregulation: Trump has consistently advocated for reducing regulatory burdens on businesses, especially in industries like energy and manufacturing, to promote growth. He has been critical of Biden’s green energy policies, pledging to restore America’s energy dominance.
- America First Trade Policies: Trump would likely continue his “America First” trade policy, aiming to renegotiate trade deals and reduce the U.S. reliance on China. This could involve tariffs or other protectionist measures to strengthen domestic manufacturing.
- Cutting Government Spending: Trump has talked about addressing the national debt and deficit by reducing government spending, although specifics on which areas would face cuts are still unclear. His past approach focused more on growing the economy than making cuts.
- Energy Independence: Trump would push for renewed domestic fossil fuel production, cutting back on the Biden administration’s regulations on oil and gas to restore the U.S. as a net energy exporter.
In summary, Trump’s plan emphasizes tax cuts, deregulation, energy independence, and trade policies to drive economic growth, contrasting with Biden-Harris’s focus on green energy and social spending.
Conclusion
From a conservative perspective, Trump’s third year was stronger economically across most metrics compared to Biden’s third year. The key areas of GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, business confidence, and energy independence all favored Trump. Moving forward, Harris’s economic focus aligns with Biden’s policies but lacks a detailed independent platform, while Trump’s economic proposals suggest a return to the pro-business, deregulation, and tax-cutting agenda that defined his first term.