The delay of the Longshoremen’s strike until after January 17, 2025, has raised concerns about the Biden-Harris administration’s potential influence on labor decisions to protect their political standing in an election year. While such a move avoids immediate economic disruption, the consequences of this delay could be felt in both the economy and politics. In this post, we will explore the economic impacts of a strike before and after the election, and how the Biden-Harris administration’s interference could sway the 2024 race. Despite the administration’s promises, many union members currently show little support for Harris.
The Economic Fallout of a Strike: Immediate vs. Delayed
A strike involving Longshoremen, the backbone of America’s ports, could bring the national supply chain to a halt. The flow of imports and exports that feed into vital sectors like electronics, autos, clothing, and food would come to a grinding stop. How this strike is timed could dramatically change its impact on the economy.
If the strike were to happen now, the effects would be felt almost immediately in the most critical season for American retail: the holiday shopping period. The retail sector, along with consumers, depends heavily on timely shipments of goods, particularly imported products like electronics, vehicles, and appliances. Should dock workers strike before the election, these items could become scarce, leading to price spikes. Inflation, which has been an ongoing issue under the Biden administration, could surge again. Empty shelves would dominate the news cycle, with the administration blamed for failing to prevent this economic disaster. The ripple effects would extend to consumer confidence, job losses in manufacturing, and further economic instability—all while voters are heading to the polls.
By contrast, a strike postponed to January would allow the administration to glide through the election with far fewer economic tremors. Retailers would be able to restock shelves after the holidays, and inflationary pressures would temporarily ease. However, a strike in the new year would still cause significant disruption to supply chains, especially in sectors like construction and agriculture. Manufacturers relying on imports could see production delays, and food exporters would suffer from halted shipments.
In either scenario, the economic damage is undeniable, but timing plays a pivotal role in determining the severity of that damage. A strike now would have an immediate and visible impact on voters, whereas a strike in January would shift the burden to a post-election economic recovery.
A Strike Now: Political and Economic Consequences
If the Longshoremen go on strike before the election, the Biden-Harris administration could face severe consequences. A strike now would mean empty shelves during the holiday season, sparking frustration among consumers, small businesses, and large retailers alike. Key imports like electronics, cars, appliances, and clothing would become harder to find, and inflation would worsen due to supply shortages.
A key risk is inflationary pressure. After years of inflation concerns under the Biden administration, a pre-election strike would only add fuel to that fire. The Federal Reserve might raise interest rates further to combat rising prices, making borrowing more expensive for businesses and individuals. All of this would erode consumer confidence, painting a picture of economic instability just as voters head to the polls. With the economy in a precarious position, the electorate may turn away from the incumbents in favor of change. Donald Trump has emphasized his “America First” trade policies, and the contrast between his promises of economic stability and a strike-induced economic crisis could tip the scales in his favor.
Retailers, particularly those dependent on imports, would be hard-hit. Major stores could see their inventories dwindle, forcing them to raise prices on remaining stock. This would be especially evident in consumer electronics, where high demand and short supply could lead to skyrocketing prices. The auto industry, reliant on both imported cars and components, would also be affected, with delays in production and price hikes on new vehicles. All of this would spell political disaster for an administration already battling economic perceptions.
A Strike in January: Less Visible, Still Costly
Postponing the strike until January may delay the immediate crisis, but it doesn’t eliminate the threat. A strike in early 2025 would still create significant disruptions across industries, but it would avoid the politically sensitive holiday season.
After January 17, retailers would be in a slower post-holiday season, which could cushion the blow somewhat. However, manufacturers, particularly those in the auto and tech industries, would still face severe delays due to stalled shipments of parts and materials. The construction industry, dependent on imports like steel and lumber, would see projects delayed and costs rise.
While the Biden-Harris administration would have sidestepped a pre-election disaster, the strike could set the stage for economic struggles early in Harris’s first term, should she win. Delaying the strike to January might allow the administration to win the election, but it could leave them dealing with a fresh economic crisis as they enter 2025.
Political Ramifications: Union Loyalty and Electoral Calculations
While delaying the strike might seem like a smart tactical move, there’s no guarantee it will win over union workers. Polls show that many union members, including those in the Longshoremen’s ranks, do not favor Kamala Harris. Reports of the administration promising to meet union demands after the election could be seen as political maneuvering, and many workers may distrust these promises, especially given the perception that they’re being used as pawns in an electoral chess match.
The union vote has traditionally favored Democrats, but Trump’s populist rhetoric has resonated with many workers who feel abandoned by the current administration. By delaying the strike, the Biden-Harris administration risks alienating workers further. If Harris wins and fails to deliver on the promises made to union leaders, that disillusionment could deepen, creating long-term political damage for the Democratic Party.
On the other hand, avoiding a strike now might stave off immediate political disaster. The economic chaos of a pre-election strike would likely doom the Biden-Harris ticket, as voters would blame the administration for failing to prevent the disruption. By pushing the strike to January, Harris might just avoid the worst-case scenario, buying time to secure votes.
Conclusion
The Biden-Harris administration’s decision to delay the Longshoremen’s strike may temporarily shield the economy from immediate damage, but the economic and political consequences loom large. A strike now would wreak havoc on supply chains, causing inflation, job losses, and economic instability during a critical election season. A strike in January would shift the economic burden to 2025, potentially dampening a Harris presidency right out of the gate.
Either way, union members remain skeptical of Harris, and delaying the strike may not be enough to win over their votes. In the end, this tactical delay could sway the 2024 election, but it leaves the administration facing a difficult economic reckoning in 2025. Whether the gamble pays off remains to be seen, but the political and economic landscape is certain to be shaped by how this strike unfolds.